2026 World Cup picks, odds, predictions: Best bets for Sweden-France, Mexico-Ecuador on Tuesday

And of course, there are also six teams still to be decided in March’s play-offs. There is currently a combined 3.7% chance of any of those sides going all the way, with Italy surely the most likely candidates if they can end their World Cup exile. Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out. Semi-finalists in both 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico and Uruguay (1.7%), whose coach Bielsa recently went on a rant in a press conference following speculation over his position. Eleven of the tournament’s venues are in the USA, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way. They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle.

World Cup scores, results: South Africa caps off Matchday 3 with stunner, setting up knockout-round game with Canada

But it’s at the end of this chapter and moving that things get real, real serious. The bracket is set, and now all 32 teams can start to dream about their path to the final. 2026 Soccer Pick ‘Em with FOX One is a new free-to-play Yahoo Fantasy game where fans make picks each round, earn points and climb the leaderboard. Tactics and managerial decision-making can be the difference between winning and losing a World Cup game, and there are plenty of skippers in the tournament that have had success coaching around the globe. At age 40, Croatia’s Luka Modrić will be back for a fifth World Cup, assuming he recovers from cheekbone surgery in time.

Germany’s recent World Cup campaigns have fallen short since their 2014 triumph. While they showed promise at UEFA EURO 2024, France enter with superior depth and balance. Having reached the latter stages repeatedly, this feels like an opportunity France cannot let slip, and their overall quality should see them through. Brazil have struggled to define a clear identity in recent tournaments, raising doubts about their ability to make a legitimate World Cup run.

These two met at the same stage of Euro 2024 and Spain won en route to glory. France, with their deeper, lavishly gifted squad, can gain revenge as the fresher of the two over this slog of a tournament. Houston is a long way from Canada, and this is probably where the co-hosts’ run comes to earth, with 2022 semifinalists Morocco going deep once more. Senegal looked sharp in their final win over Iraq but didn’t impress much against Norway ro France. European opponents tend to fill the United States with dread, but Bosnia has faded down the stretch in all of their matches, even the win over Qatar. Both of these teams have enjoyed free-scoring group-stage outingsm but if Sweden enter a 90-minute shootout with Kylian Mbappe and company, they are likely to be outgunned.

World Cup picks, odds, predictions: Best bets for Sweden-France, Mexico-Ecuador on Tuesday

Reliable World Cup 2026 predictions depend on careful analysis of each team, its players, and its performance over time. While favorites are already taking shape, the true outcome will only be decided on the pitch. At this world cup 2026 odds stage, a reasonable projection places France as a potential winner. Their ability to adapt during a match and their strength across all lines make them one of the safest picks in 2026 FIFA World Cup favorites predictions.

But if France make the quarter-finals (they did so in 47.9% of sims), they then start to fare increasingly better in our projections. Ultimately, they made the final 21.3% of the time and emerged as the second-likeliest victors. According to the Opta supercomputer, there are six other teams who should go into the tournament with strong hopes of going all the way. If a team wants to win the World Cup this summer, they will likely have to overcome a formidable obstacle in Spain. The supercomputer believes Spain have a chance to ease into the tournament, as they topped Group H in a massive 75.3% of sims, with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde representing a reasonably kind draw. Cape Verde have qualified for the first time and are among 10 countries from Africa, while the three co-hosts make up half of six teams from the CONCACAF region.

World Cup 2026: Winners predicted as holders Argentina defend title in USA, Canada, Mexico tournament

For Cape Verde and manager Rui Aguas, simply reaching this stage has already rewritten what is possible for African football’s smaller nations, and anything further would be a genuine shock to the tournament bracket.
Fans and analysts are actively discussing World Cup 2026 predictions, trying to understand which team will be ready to go all the way.
Our initial forecasts are based on a best guess of the starting lineups of all 48 squads; we’ll update these estimates if there are prominent injuries.
The supercomputer is a bit kinder to Uzbekistan (0.1%) and Jordan (0.1%), but both teams will still be doing well to get out of their groups.
With one of the most dramatic club seasons in recent memory only just behind us, the stakes are about to get even higher, with the biggest prize in football up for grabs at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Model-driven forecasts for all 104 World Cup 2026 fixtures — group stage to the final.
Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances.
Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup.
But they won that match by a statement 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané among the goals.
Canada finished second behind Switzerland and chase a first men’s World Cup knockout win against South Africa in the opening tie.
Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who went home.
They are expected to challenge Switzerland for top spot in Group B.
Rui Aguas guided his side to three draws in Group H against Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which proved enough to advance, making them one of the surprise packages of the tournament.
Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez, and Enzo Fernández give them genuine quality even without Messi at his peak.

Throw in guys like William Saliba and Michael Olise, among others, and it’s hard not to like this group. Belgium should control this group, but the remaining positions are harder to predict. Mohamed Salah will be motivated to prove he remains world class as Egypt’s leader, though after a season full of diminishing returns and muscle injuries, it’s a tall ask.

It will be Mexico next in the Azteca if England beat DR Congo, while France are shorter than 2/1 to win the tournament with most bookmakers after crushing Sweden. Argentina vs Portugal – If there’s a nation equipped and motivated enough to end another title-winning campaign for Lionel Messi, it’s Roberto Martinez’s side. Argentina vs United States – The US crashed out at this juncture in the last tournament staged on their soil, and history looks set to repeat itself against the reigning champions.

Croatia vs Spain – Croatia’s remarkable tournament experience and resilience could make this a tightly contested encounter.
Brazil vs Japan – Under normal circumstances, this would be a no-brainer.
Six host nations have won the World Cup, most recently France in 1998.
Top 5 (Argentina, Spain, France, England, Brazil) most likely to reach this stage.
Ivory Coast arguably should have won all three of their Group E matches after they threw away a 1-0 lead to lose late against Germany, but Emerse Fae’s team have found goals hard to come by.
Argentina’s World Cup 2026 campaign has been a demonstration of controlled authority.
They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players.
But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up.
Before a ball has been kicked, Scotland’s likeliest result is seen as elimination in the round of 32.
France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway.
Fresh off a dominant qualifying cycle, England enter the tournament as one of the top six betting favourites to take home the most prestigious international title.
They must get past Northern Ireland and potentially Wales to make it, with both of those sides hoping to join fellow home nations England and Scotland.
Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark.

Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup? Our Final Prediction

Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions, four years on from Lionel Messi’s long-awaited crowning moment, and as the all-time great prepares for his last dance on this stage. Stephen Eustaquio’s late goal sparked jubilant celebrations among the co-hosts, with head coach Jesse Marsch telling his players they had become “Canadian heroes” and inspired the next generation of footballers. Ronald Koeman’s side won 47.6 percent of the 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Morocco progressed in 25.0 percent. The remaining 27.4 percent of simulations were level after 90 minutes, sending the match to extra time and, if necessary, penalties.

I would feel more confident in the U.S. going through to the semifinals in that scenario than us against someone like Spain. From animals to colors to local cultural symbols, every team (except one) has a special moniker that’s specific to their nation. Here are the nicknames for every team that will be playing in the World Cup this month.

Indy Sport’s writers have made their selections for USA, Canada and Mexico 2026

He’s backing Norway to win behind star striker Erling Haaland and also has France winning comfortably against a European rival. Before locking in your 2026 World Cup picks and other World Cup bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the team of experts at SportsLine. They are robust, organised, physically powerful and extremely difficult to break down.

World Cup: Canada smacks Qatar 6-0 to secure first-ever World Cup win

Click any group below for full match predictions, score tips, and qualification analysis. Here is each team’s probability of winning the World Cup, and advancing to each stage of the knockout round, using an old-school, FiveThirtyEight heatmap format. The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams — the largest in tournament history.

Trending Teams

On 5 December, allowing fans of all nations to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium. Get expert predictions for every match, updated daily throughout the tournament. If Norway advance through the group stage, Haaland’s clinical finishing and aerial ability make him the most likely top scorer. France beat Sweden 3-0 in a match that the model thought could get really out of hand, and it did. They’ve been excellent in this tournament, and Sweden’s attack-oriented mindset is generally a less effective strategy for pulling off an upset than Paraguay’s more defensive stance.

France vs. Spain

FIFA Annex C determines R32 pairings based on which groups the third-placed teams come from. Norway, Morocco, Colombia and Japan are the dark horses, and all four reached the Round of 32. Norway came through the toughest group in their first World Cup since 1998, Colombia won Group K, Morocco backed up their 2022 run, and Japan again showed they can beat anyone. None of the three co-hosts are favorites, but all three reached the knockouts and all three have a real story to tell. Lionel Messi made history in the group stage, overtaking Miroslav Klose as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

With the World Soccer Ticket, fans get access to top leagues, live TV, and streaming — all in one place — so you never miss the action. There are no major injury concerns for either side, with both managers expected to field their strongest available lineups. Both nations are chasing a place in the last 16, but only one will keep their World Cup dream alive. Some links to betting partners or promotional offers on MyFootballFacts may result in a commission to help support our site. These include betting offers, free bets, and casino promotions as well as other affiliate commissions —all subject to change and individual terms and conditions. The group stage of the 2026 World Cup has come to a close and it’s full steam ahead into the round of 32.

World Cup bracket predictions 2026: Expert picks for Round of 32 and every FIFA knockout game

Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG – the second-highest tally at the competition. Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998 and this will be Kylian Mbappé’s first World Cup as France skipper. If Spain are to triumph, it is likely Lamine Yamal will play a key role. Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final.

One World Cup player to watch from each of the five favourite teams

Make sure you stick to your research and utilise World Cup predictions when placing bets on the biggest tournament in world football. Similarly, tactics tend to play a large role for international teams. Spain for example have always played in a similar way which involves having lots of possession, whilst Italy for example have always been well-known for being resilient defensively. On top of those nations, Brazil, Germany, and many other countries can also have a big part to play in the 2026 World Cup too in what is expected to be an enthralling tournament. The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams and they are split into 12 different groups, with winners, runners up, and even some third placed teams qualifying into the knockout rounds of the Finals.

World Cup 2026 Predictions

Below are all of the confirmed matches for the Round of 32, with the schedule for when they are played and a prediction on each game. The 2026 World Cup will be the broadest, most competitive, and most logistically complex tournament ever staged. Picking a winner is harder than it has ever been, and that’s precisely what makes the build-up so compelling. Whatever your predictions, the only certainty is that we’ll all be surprised by something.

Portugal vs. Argentina

There are not expected to be any surprises in the Germany XI for this match, with Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala set to continue as the front three. Nathaniel Brown was not involved against Ecuador last time out due to a muscular problem, but the left-back is expected to be cleared to feature from the first whistle here. This is the sort of information to consider if you are thinking of betting on the World Cup, and we have included it in our World Cup betting guide. Paraguay are through as one of the best third-placed finishers at the competition, while Germany finished at the head of Group E to secure a spot in the round of 32. For example, by reproducing the kind of performance they showed in the opening half-hour against Brazil.

At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark. 48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022. They are split into 12 groups of four, with 32 teams advancing to the knockout rounds. For the complete match-by-match schedule with dates, times, and venues, see our full World Cup 2026 fixtures guide. See here for an overview of which teams got luckiest and unluckiest based on where they slotted into the bracket.

David Raya, Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi are Premier League champions and Champions League runners-up. There are eight LaLiga winners from Barcelona – but, tellingly, none from Real Madrid. They are the reigning European champions too, having beaten England in the final two years ago, and will be looking to add to their only World Cup title from 2010.

A key piece of that culture is the teams’ nicknames — the names that the fans know them by.
Having reached the latter stages repeatedly, this feels like an opportunity France cannot let slip, and their overall quality should see them through.
He’s backing Norway to win behind star striker Erling Haaland and also has France winning comfortably against a European rival.
Germany’s recent World Cup campaigns have fallen short since their 2014 triumph.
With the World Soccer Ticket, fans get access to top leagues, live TV, and streaming — all in one place — so you never miss the action.
Ronaldo and his great rival Messi will make history this summer when they appear, becoming the first players to participate in six separate World Cups.
There are many nations from Africa that could have a huge impact on the 2026 World Cup, just like Morocco who managed to make it all the way to the semi-final of the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
Here is each team’s probability of winning the World Cup, and advancing to each stage of the knockout round, using an old-school, FiveThirtyEight heatmap format.
Our AI football predictions go far beyond World Cup 2026 matches, covering more than 160 competitions worldwide.
Every match is assessed individually, but long-term trends are equally important.

Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%). Croatia rank just above co-hosts USA and place 15th overall in terms of potential winners with a 1.6% chance. The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments. We have covered the seven teams who are most likely to win the tournament, but there are also a few other potential winners.

Official FIFA schedule will confirm exact kick-off times for each match.
Spain and Brazil are the strongest challengers, though Spain would have to get past Argentina in the semifinals to reach the final on July 19.
The Bosnian legend didn’t miss a minute in the playoffs against Wales and Italy despite injuring his shoulder.
Tuesday’s tie, however, will be their first knockout match against an African nation.
If previous World Cups are anything to go by, shocks and surprises should be a given, so all those teams will still be dreaming of a deep run.
Main Pick – Argentina to Win @ 1/6Argentina have won all five of their recent matches and scored nine goals in three World Cup group fixtures.
As such a wide range of countries with very different World Cup histories fight it out, the 23rd edition may well prove to be the most compelling.
Ivory Coast has the physicality and midfield quality to frustrate Norway, but the Scandinavian side’s clinical finishing and attacking firepower could ultimately prove decisive.
Mexico, the team that defeated the USA in the Gold Cup final, are the host nation viewed as most likely to shock the world and lift the trophy, with a 1.3% probability.
48 teams compete at the 2026 World Cup — expanded from 32 at Qatar 2022.
This season, 51% of World Cup 2026 matches ended with over 2.5 goals, while Both Teams to Score hit in 52% of games.

World Cup Day 15 What to Watch: USMNT aims for undefeated group play; Netherlands, Japan, Sweden battle for Group F

This promises to be one of the most evenly matched ties of the Round of 32. Ivory Coast has the physicality and midfield quality to frustrate Norway, but the Scandinavian side’s clinical finishing and attacking firepower could ultimately prove decisive. Ivory Coast narrowly missed out on topping Group E after surrendering a lead against Germany, but their overall performances have underlined why they are being tipped as one of the tournament’s surprise packages. A confident victory over Curaçao on Matchday 3 showcased both their defensive organisation and attacking threat. Norway, meanwhile, is making its first World Cup appearance since France 1998 and has looked every bit like a dangerous dark horse.

Looking beyond this match, Germany have a 78.6 percent chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 4.4 percent probability of winning the World Cup. Before locking in any Brazil vs. Japan picks or World Cup 2026 predictions, you need to see what proven soccer expert Jon Eimer has to say. World Cup 2026 Outright – Argentina @ 4/1Argentina sit second in the World Cup 2026 outright winner market at 4/1. As reigning champions with Messi in this sort of form and a full squad at Scaloni’s disposal, they remain a serious title contender.

Portugal, who arrive in the US, Canada and Mexico ranked fifth in the world and fourth favourites for the tournament, are in a favourable-looking Group K alongside the likes of Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan.
Netherlands topped Group F with seven points to breeze into the round of 32, while Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil, also claiming seven points from three games.
Mikel Oyarzabal and Mikel Merino were among Spain’s star performers in qualifying.
Spain often have a who’s who of title winners from across Europe, and this summer is no different.
Argentina remains a serious contender, especially if key players stay fit.
Below is a daily World Cup game schedule so you can plan accordingly.
Portugal go into the World Cup with momentum after winning the Nations League under Roberto Martínez.
Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award.
We now live in a world where Brazil, the nation with more World Cups than any other, are considered ‘dark horses’.
But the prospect of two icons duelling to end the tournament in the lead should be absorbing viewing.
He finally has that winning feeling at Bayern and maybe, just maybe, he’s ready to fire England to glory too.

Ivory Coast return to the World Cup after a 12‑year absence, built around a core of prime‑age players. While their physicality and attacking threat stand out, their defense is arguably their greatest strength, led by Roma’s Evan N’Dicka. That said, Senegal appear the more complete side, with greater star power likely to make the difference. This contest may be decided in extra time or penalties, favoring Senegal. England’s talent makes them a serious contender, but I’m backing Croatia to finish first based on their recent World Cup success under Luka Modric. England’s game control and defense will be hard to beat, but scoring on bigger stages has always been iffy.

With the Round of 32 underway and this 48-team field wide open, we will update these picks after every round. Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated. South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early. France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway.

They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players. France will naturally sit near the top of most betting markets but they are easier to oppose than the odds suggest. Few nations in football history have possessed such an embarrassment of attacking riches. Yet there remains a nagging doubt over whether the France manager can truly maximise what he has at his disposal.

Spain is backed to make light work of Austria, as is England in its meeting with DR Congo. Both sides arrived at this summer’s tournament expecting to reach the later stages and the supercomputer does not predict any early obstacles. No team has greater odds of reaching the round of 16 than Argentina. Standing in its way is underdog Cabo Verde, whose spirited journey is expected to come to an emphatic end in the coming days. If you’re after a free-flowing side, stick to the Spains of this world. Led by Carlo Ancelotti, who gets over the line in knockout games by placing importance on defensive shape but allowing individual quality to shine through.

ELO Football Ratings (35% weight)

We’ve lost big names like Uruguay, Scotland and Türkiye, but all the pre-tournament favorites are still alive and kicking in pursuit of glory across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Luis de la Fuente’s side are arguably the best-equipped team in the tournament because they possess two attributes that are often difficult to marry together. They can dominate possession for long spells, suffocating opponents and conserving energy through control of the ball – but they can also go direct and attack space quickly when the game demands it.

For full predictions on points, goals and assists, check out our 2026 World Cup Team Projections. Here’s exactly how we compute championship odds, group probabilities, and knockout forecasts. With the 48-team format, expect slight dilution — 10–12 top-20 teams likely. The 2026 knockout format starts with Round of 32 — a new round created by the 48-team expansion. 8 third-placed teams join the 24 automatic qualifiers (1st + 2nd from each of 12 groups), making the R32 path unprecedented.

Indeed, because Paraguay beat Germany on penalties yesterday, France will now face them in the R16.
From the opening match at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on 11 June 2026 to the Final at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey on 19 July 2026, this page is your complete prediction hub.
Uzbekistan came out on top in 26.8 percent of simulations, while the draw was rated at 24.3 percent, leaving the Central Asian side with an outside chance of reaching the Round of 32.
They are in an evenly matched pool, and while seen as the least likely team to win Group D, they still have a decent 17.9% hope of topping the table.
Right now, though, France appears to have the edge in most departments.
South Korea vs Bosnia & Herzegovina – Despite overcoming Italy in the qualifying play-offs, this tie could spell the end of Bosnia’s World Cup journey.
But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time.
With the FIFA World Cup featuring 48 teams in total, this is how teams from each continent qualify for the Finals.
That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.
South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early.
With that in mind, there are not many outcomes which can be completely dismissed.
Ronald Koeman’s side won 47.6 percent of the 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Morocco progressed in 25.0 percent.

Fresh off a dominant qualifying cycle, England enter the tournament as one of the top six betting favourites to take home the most prestigious international title. Debutants Uzbekistan are seen as having a slightly better chance of impressing than the other new nations, as they have a 0.2% chance of going all the way. A more realistic aim might be getting through the groups after impressing in AFC qualification – beating out sides like Qatar and United Arab Emirates. When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final.

World Cup Round of 32: Confirmed schedule, results, predictions for first knockout round

With the FIFA World Cup featuring 48 teams in total, this is how teams from each continent qualify for the Finals. The tournament has three different hosts, which are Canada, Mexico, and the USA, all three of which will feature in the tournament due to hosting. In 11 of the 12 groups, a team has been picked by at least 70% of entries in Yahoo Sports’ Soccer Pick ‘Em with Fox One. Yahoo users are largely united about how the group stage will play out. In the United States, all 104 matches are in English on Fox (70) and FS1 (34), and all are streamed on Fox One.